Somewhere along the evolutionary path, we learned to associate confidence with competence. We equate the person who speaks with certainty to the person who must know what they’re doing. It’s an old instinct - useful in survival situations, but less so when we’re choosing who to follow, promote, or listen to.
In today’s companies and institutions, that instinct can be misleading - even dangerous. Especially in environments where real leadership depends on self-awareness, collaboration, curiosity, and the ability to develop others.
There’s a gap - a growing one - between those who are put in charge and those who are truly equipped to lead. Between those who impress in the interview or speak confidently in a room, and those who can actually help teams thrive.
That gap costs companies money. It erodes trust. It slows innovation. And it quietly damages careers, often those of the most capable team members.
Let me say it plainly: just because someone seems confident doesn’t mean they’re competent.
This doesn’t mean confidence is bad. But when it’s used as a proxy for leadership ability, we make poor decisions. We elevate the wrong people. And we fail to recognize - or retain - the people who could actually make a difference.
So how do we spot the difference? How do we avoid mistaking bravado for ability?
A short, excellent piece by Amy Edmondson and Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic lays this out clearly. It’s titled “How to spot the warning signs of an insecure leader (and how to work with one)”, and it’s worth your time - whether you’re hiring a leader, reporting to one, or trying to grow into leadership yourself.
Here’s one key idea from the article: insecure leaders tend to act like they already know everything. They’re uncomfortable with dissent. They overcompensate. And they avoid accountability. In contrast, secure leaders ask questions. They surround themselves with strong people. And they’re comfortable not having all the answers.
The takeaway? Competence shows up in how someone responds - to feedback, to pressure, to success, to setbacks. Confidence alone is not the test.
If you care about good leadership - and you should - this is worth paying attention to.